despite resilient domestic demand, growth is slowing
Prospects similar to those for Switzerland
The outlook for the canton of Vaud (+1.3% in 2023 and +1.8% in 2024) is similar to that for the whole country. After a rise in Swiss GDP of 2.0% last year, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) expects growth of 1.0% this year and 1.6% next year. With regard to the world economy, the forecasts of last October of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) relate, after a growth of 3.2% in 2022, to a growth of 2.7% in 2023 then of 3.2 % in 2024.
The degree of uncertainty remains high. The risk of an energy shortage in winter has not been completely ruled out, particularly for next winter. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic is not over and, despite the change in health policy in China, supply chains may remain disrupted. As far as Switzerland is concerned, other risk factors lie in a possible continued appreciation of the franc, in the uncertainty linked to relations with the European Union or in the implementation of a global minimum tax.
Several branches in a favorable situation
At branch level, after a continued recovery in 2022, the outlook remains favorable for several of them. Thus, chemicals-pharmaceuticals and trade should show strong growth (more than 2%) this year and next year. The hotel and catering industry is in the same situation, which reflects a catch-up after a collapse in activity in 2020. In public and parapublic services, moderate growth (from 0.5% to 2%) is expected in 2023 and 2024.
After marked growth this year, transport and communications could experience stagnation (change between 0.5% and 0.5%) next year. In financial services, stagnation is expected in 2023, followed by moderate growth in 2024. Business services and real estate activities could experience a moderate decline (between 0.5% and 2%) in activity this year and marked growth next year. A moderate decline is also possible in 2023 in the machinery and watch industry, followed by stagnation in 2024. In construction, moderate declines are expected this year as next.
Four publications per year
GDP is an essential indicator for assessing the dynamism of an economy. Vaud’s GDP has been published since 2009. To guarantee a rigorous and transparent calculation, the BCV, the State of Vaud, represented by the Department for the Promotion of the Economy and Innovation and Statistics Vaud, as well as the CVCI have mandated the CREA Institute of Applied Economics of the HEC Faculty of the University of Lausanne. CREA’s methodology notably incorporates cantonal GDP estimates from the Federal Statistical Office. Since January 2019, the data has been corrected for the effects of major international sporting events.
Vaud’s GDP is published four times a year (next publication: April 2023). Managers of the private economy and political decision-makers thus have access to up-to-date data and forecasts at all times, in order to be able to better prepare their decisions and steer their projects.