Oil surge: IEA predicts record crude demand as China reopens

“Global oil demand is expected to increase over the next two years. 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023.at a record level of 101.7mb/dand almost half of this increase is due to the lifting of restrictions on the Covid by China”, explains the agency.

” The kerosene remains the main source of growth, with an increase of 840,000 barrels per day (kb/d). The demand for oil from OECD fell 900,000 barrels in the fourth quarter as weak industrial activity and the effects of weather reduced usage, while demand for crude oil increased. outside the OECD increased by 500,000 barrels,” the IEA added.

At the same time, the growth of global sourcing of crude oil will be limited to 1 million barrels, due to the expected production decline in the following countries Russia.

For its part, United States is the largest source of supply growth globally and, together with the United States, it is the largest source of supply growth globally. Canada, Brazil and Guyana.will achieve record annual production for the second consecutive year.

RUSSIA AND CHINA WILL BE KEY

Regarding the forecast for 2023, the IEA noted that “two wild cards dominate the outlook for the oil market: Russia and China“. According to its forecasts, the Asian giant will be the source of a large part of the expected increase in demand, but everything will depend “on the the form and speed of its reopeningwhich remain uncertain.

With regard to Russia, the agency indicated that “Russia’s oil exports fell in 200,000 barrels per day in December, at 7.8 mb/d, as crude oil shipments to the EU fell after the entry into force of the European embargo on crude oil and the price cap by the G7″.

However, the Russian diesel exports reached a record level of 1.2 mb/d, including 720,000 for the EU. In addition, Russia record discounts for the Russian benchmark oil led to a drop in Russian revenues of around 10%. $3 billion per monthup to $12.6 billion.