The euro zone avoids recession: growth of 3.5% in 2022 and 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.9% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2022.

By country, the the strongest growth The strongest economic growth in the fourth quarter was recorded in Ireland (+3.5%), followed by Denmark, Cyprus and Romania (+1.1%). In contrast, Poland (-2.4%), Lithuania (-1.7%), Austria (-0.7%) and Sweden (-0.6%) recorded the strongest economic growth in the fourth quarter, followed by Denmark, Cyprus and Romania (+1.1%). biggest drop of GDP.

“GDP fell in the countries most exposed to Russian energy and which were not exempted from EU oil embargoes in the last quarter,” note experts from Pantheon Macroeconomics. They think that this year, economic growth will “slow down sharply” to 1%..

“This is based on our forecast that GDP will shrink by 0.2% this quarter, as it has in the past. continued high inflation and higher interest rates continue to weigh on on household spending and tighter credit standards are leading companies to put their investment plans on hold,” they explain. Later in the year, the economy will recover from the second quarter “at an average pace of 0.4% through the end of the year”.

That same week, the European Commission published an update of its macroeconomic forecasts. In it, she estimates that in 2023 and 2024, the Eurozone will grow by 0.9% and 1.5% respectively, while EU growth will be 0.8% and 1.6% for this year. and the next.

“The European economy is showing resilience in the face of current challenges. We narrowly avoided a recession. We are somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for growth and the expected decline in inflation this year. But we still face many challengesThis is not the time for complacency,” the Brussels document says.